Drought Conditions to Persist over the Winter
Posted By Joel on December 28, 2010
Drought Prediction for the next quarter
The good eggheads at the National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center (whew) have concluded that our La Nina induced drought will continue or intensify over the next 3 months.
As you probably know, a La Nina pattern in the Pacific sends waves of moisture/energy across the west and northern US (note the storms that have crippled the Midwest and NE) while a dome of high pressure dominates the southern plains (much like our late summer pattern). Even though we’ve had a few “hiccups” of rain, and are actually forecast for some decent moisture tonight and Thursday, we are WAY behind on rain totals for the month.
What does this mean for the up coming season at Ray Roberts (excuse me while I make this all about ME)? Right now, the lake is about 16″ below conservation pool and holding (there’s not a lot of evaporative or release loss in the winter). Our rain on Christmas Eve, while a good “soaker” only raised the lake level 5/100th of an INCH! The soils were just too dry and grabbed every drop . . . little to no run-off. If this trend continues as predicted, we could be two feet low by Easter. Two feet low puts us right on OPTIMAL conditions for wade fishing the flats at Ray Roberts. Maximum amounts of hard-packed, wadeable, food-containing lats are exposed at that level!
Now for the catch . . . that probably won’t happen. The last time we had this pattern (La Nina), it broke down in early March and shifting jet streams allowed all kinds of precip to come through (including a Spring Break snow storm if you remember). The lake went from a perfect 18″ low to two feet high in a matter of weeks. Great for Springtime bass fishing – not so good for the stalking of carp.
One more observation – we’ve usually had a GREAT sand bass season after a La Nina . . . keep your fingers crossed!
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Can you please bring some GOOD NEWS? I told you about that location burned in a control burn. Can you tell me what the ramifications are for the vegetation in that area — and fish of course. Thanks, Shannon
for carp fishing, it is good news . . . lower lake levels. If it persists into the summer, we might even be able to kayak out to the mythical “Brigadoon” of carp flats – that old airstrip that’s usually in 4-5 ft. of water during the summer. I’ve only seen it twice since I started flyfishing for carp on Roberts in ’98. One afternoon was (and still is) the greatest day of carpin’ I’ve ever had . . . 22 fish caught with several over 6 pounds in just under 5 hours!
As for the burn area, the burn will reduce invasive species, help increase diversity by allowing more plants to seed, and fix more nutrients (like nitrogen and phosphorous) into the soil. This can only help the adjacent shoreline areas UNLESS we get a bunch of rain that washes all the ash/sediment into the flats. Then plants and unicellular life forms get screwed up (lack of photosynthesis, dissolved O2 levels, etc.) and effects are left up the food chain to carp and bass (which would leave the area).
So, to sum up. The burn is good and it’s actually great that we’re in a La Nina pattern so there’s less probability of nasty run-off screwing up a GOOD flats fishing area!